Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL week 13 Colts vs Patriots pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The Patriots are the underdog at +128 on the money line as they host the Colts at 1:00 ET on Sunday, December 1st at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Colts are favored on the road with a money line of -151 and a point spread of -2.5. The over/under line is set at 42.5 points for this week 13 AFC matchup, which is being televised on CBS.

Colts vs. Patriots Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Where: Foxborough at Gillette Stadium
Date: Sunday, December 1st
Betting Odds IND -2.5, IND -151 | NE +128 O/U 42.5

Colts Preview:

Heading into week 13, the Colts sit 25th in our power rankings and have a 22.6% chance of making the playoffs. They are 5-7 overall, which puts them 2nd in the AFC South. In division games, they are 1-3, and they are 4-4 against AFC opponents. Indy is 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road.

Against the spread, the Colts are 8-4 this season, with a +2.7 scoring margin. They are 2-1 as favorites and 6-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 5-7, with their games averaging 43 points compared to an average line of 44.8.

Colts Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 13, the Colts rank 25th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 20.2 points per game, and 22nd in total yards per game with 316.3. Their passing game ranks 24th, with 199.7 yards per game on 30.2 attempts (23rd). On the ground, they average 116.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 17th, on 26.1 attempts per game. Indianapolis ranks 23rd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, and they are 16th in red zone conversion percentage, despite ranking 10th in red zone attempts.

Anthony Richardson struggled in week 12, completing just 11 of 28 passes for 172 yards in a 24-6 loss to the Lions. He did not throw a touchdown or an interception. Michael Pittman Jr. led the team with 6 catches for 96 yards, and Richardson added 61 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Colts' offense was shut out in the 2nd half, after scoring 6 points in the 1st half.

Colts Team Defense

In their 24-6 loss to the Lions, the Colts' defense allowed 390 yards and struggled to get off the field on third downs, allowing the Lions to convert 60% of their third down attempts. Despite this, they did manage to get three sacks and held the Lions to 4.2 yards per attempt on the ground.

Indianapolis allowed 253 passing yards and 72.2% completions to Detroit. The Colts' offense didn't help their defense much, as they managed only six points in the game.

Patriots Preview:

Heading into week 13, the Patriots sit at 3-9 and rank 30th in our NFL power rankings. New England has a -7.1 scoring margin and is 4-7-1 against the spread, having been the underdog in all of their games so far. They have a 1-4 home record and are 2-5 on the road.

After beating the Bears in week 10, the Patriots have now lost two straight, including a 28-22 loss to the Rams in week 11 and a 34-15 loss to the Dolphins in week 12. They couldn’t cover the spread in either game, and the over hit in both matchups.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 13, the Patriots rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 16.4 points per game, and they sit last in the league in both passing yards (167.2) and total yards (280.1) per game. On the ground, they rank 21st in rushing yards per game, with 112.8, on 25.9 attempts per game. New England is 26th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 34.1%, but they have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 8th in conversion percentage.

Drake Maye threw for 222 yards (22/37) and a touchdown in week 12 against the Dolphins, but the Patriots’ offense struggled, failing to score until the 4th quarter. DeMario Douglas led the team with 5 catches for 62 yards, and Antonio Gibson had 31 rushing yards on 6 carries. New England converted just 3 of 14 3rd-down attempts in the loss.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots allowed 4 passing touchdowns and 308 passing yards. Despite holding Miami to just 65 rushing yards on 24 attempts, New England's defense struggled to defend the pass, as the Dolphins completed 72.5% of their passes. The Patriots allowed Miami to convert on 33.3% of their third down attempts and managed just two sacks while losing the QB hit differential by -6.

Colts vs Patriots Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last ten road games, Indianapolis has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 19 points per game.
In their last ten games at home, the Patriots have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 6-4 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 16 points per game in these contests.
The last three games that New England was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
Indianapolis has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.