Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 13 Dolphins vs Packers pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Green Bay.

On Thursday, November 28th at 8:20 ET, the Dolphins and Packers will face off at Lambeau Field. The Packers are favored by -3.5 and have a money line of -177. This non-conference matchup is being televised on NBC, with the Dolphins at +150 on the money line. The over/under line is currently at 47 points.

Dolphins vs. Packers Matchup At A Glance

  • Sport: NFL
  • Teams: Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers
  • Where: Green Bay at Lambeau Field
  • Date: Thursday, November 28th
  • Betting Odds GB -3.5, MIA +150 | GB -177 O/U 47

Dolphins Preview:

After a 28-27 loss to the Cardinals in week 8, the Dolphins have bounced back with three straight wins, including a 34-15 victory over the Patriots in week 12. Miami was a 7.5-point favorite and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-6. They’ve now covered in four consecutive games. The over hit in this game, ending with 49 points, and the Dolphins have gone over the total in two straight.

Miami is 5-6 this season and ranks 16th in our power rankings. They currently have a 19.6% chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road and 3-3 at home, and they are 2-2 in division games. They are 2nd in the AFC East and 8th in the conference.

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 13, the Dolphins sit 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.5, and 19th in passing yards per game with 207.1 on 32.5 attempts per contest. Miami ranks 16th in rushing, with 116.8 yards per game, and they are 8th in rushing attempts. On 3rd down, the Dolphins have a conversion rate of 41.8%, which is 10th in the league, and they are 14th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 12, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 317 yards and 4 touchdowns, completing 29 of 40 passes against the Patriots. Jaylen Waddle led the team with 8 receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown, while De'Von Achane had 32 yards on 10 carries. Miami scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter and converted 3 of 4 red zone opportunities.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 34-15 win over the Patriots, the Dolphins' defense allowed just 182 passing yards and held New England to 21.4% on third down. They also had four sacks and came up with one interception. The Patriots managed only 86 yards rushing on 21 attempts against Miami.

The Dolphins' defense limited New England to 268 total yards and allowed just one passing touchdown in the game. Miami's defenders also won the battle in the trenches, producing six more quarterback hits than the Patriots and one more tackle for loss.

Packers Preview:

After a narrow win over the Bears in week 11, the Packers bounced back with a decisive 38-10 victory over the 49ers, improving their record to 8-3. Green Bay was a 6.5-point favorite and covered the spread, snapping a three-game ATS losing streak. They are now 5-6 against the spread this season. Their O/U record stands at 5-5-1, with their games averaging 46.5 points.

Heading into week 13, the Packers rank 4th in our NFL power rankings and have a 97.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, they are 3rd in the NFC North with a 1-2 division record. At home, Green Bay is 4-2, while they are 4-1 on the road.

Packers Offense Breakdown

Green Bay’s offense is currently 9th in our power rankings, and they sit 8th in the NFL, averaging 26.2 points per game. They rank 5th in the league with 381.9 passing yards per game and 11th in passing yards, despite being 26th in passing attempts. On the ground, the Packers are 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game, with 151.6.

Jordan Love threw for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 12, going 13/23 against the 49ers. Josh Jacobs had 106 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns on 26 carries, while Romeo Doubs led the receivers with 54 yards on 3 catches. The Packers scored 14 points in the 4th quarter and converted 5/5 red zone attempts.

Packers Team Defense

In their 38-10 win over the 49ers, the Packers' defense was outstanding, holding San Francisco to just 44 rushing yards on 16 attempts. They defended the pass well, allowing only 197 yards through the air and holding the 49ers to a 30% third-down conversion rate. The Packers also came away with one interception and limited San Francisco to 10 points.

Green Bay's defense was disruptive in the passing game, managing two sacks and keeping the 49ers to a 58.6% completion rate. Despite losing the tackles for loss battle, the Packers' defense was able to keep the 49ers off the scoreboard for most of the game.

Dolphins vs Packers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

  • When looking at their past five road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 15 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
  • When looking at their past five home matchups, Green Bay has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 26 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
  • As the betting underdog, the Dolphins have an ATS mark of just 2-3 in their last five games. Miami posted a straight up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
  • As the betting favorite, the Packers have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Green Bay posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.

Dolphins vs Packers Free Pick

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