The money line odds for Thursday's matchup between the Brewers and Pirates have the Brewers as the favorite, with their odds sitting at -121 compared to the Pirates at +103. This one is getting started at 12:35 PM ET from PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
BSWI will be televising this game, and Aaron Civale will be starting for the Brewers. The Pirates are starting Mitch Keller and are 74-84, while the Brewers are 90-68 and are 1st in the NL Central.
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Brewers at Pirates
- Where: PNC Park Pittsburgh
- Date: Thursday, September 26th
- Betting Odds MIL -121 | PIT +103 O/U 8
Brewers vs Pirates Last Game Recap
Pittsburgh picked up a 2-1 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a two-run 5th inning, and the Brewers could only muster one run in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Pirates were at +137 on the money line.
Luis L. Ortiz started for the Pirates and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued one walk. Aroldis Chapman closed things out for Pittsburgh.
Freddy Peralta got the start for the Brewers, going just 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on two hits. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks.
Brewers Preview
As the underdog, the Brewers have a strong run line record of 44-23, and their overall run line record is 79-79. Milwaukee's games have gone over the total 80 times this season, compared to 68 unders, with an average of 8.8 runs per game.
Currently, the Brewers lead the NL Central by nine games over the Cardinals, with a 90-68 overall record. They have won four straight series on the road, but have dropped six of their last eight games overall. At home, Milwaukee is 45-33, and on the road, they are 45-35.
Milwaukee is sending right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.53. Civale's WHIP for the season is 1.33, and he has turned in seven quality starts. In his last outing, Civale took the loss, giving up three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 6.61 on the road compared to 3.62 at home.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers' top power threats this season, as Contreras has 23 homers and Adames has gone deep 32 times, which is 10th in the league. Adames' 111 RBIs are 4th in the MLB. Adames is also on a three-game hitting streak and comes into the game batting .252. Rhys Hoskins has also been a good power threat, with 25 homers, but he is batting just .214 for the season.
As a team, the Brewers are 6th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .248 and have the 4th best on-base percentage in the league. In terms of avoiding strikeouts, the Brewers are 18th in the league.
Pirates Preview
On the season, the Pirates have an over/under record of 17-20 in games with an 8-run total, and their overall O/U record is 76-80. Pittsburgh's run line record is 84-74, with a 39-41 record at home and 45-33 on the road. As underdogs, they are 60-36 on the run line, but as favorites, they are 24-38.
Currently, the Pirates are 16 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central with a 74-84 record. They are looking to snap a three-series losing streak, as they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games. This season, the Pirates have a 34-28 record when favored and a 40-56 record as underdogs.
Mitch Keller will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Reds, as he gets the start for the Pirates today. In that start, which came on September 20th, Keller took the loss and gave up eight earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Looking back further, he has given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Keller's record for the season is 11-11, and his ERA is 4.21. Opponents are batting .251 off the right-hander this season. Keller has made 30 starts, and his WHIP for the season is 1.29.
For the season, the Pirates are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. As a team, the Pirates are batting just .235 and are near the bottom of the league in home runs. One positive for the Pirates is that they have the league's 8th best BABIP.
Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds have been the Pirates' top home run hitters this season, with 21 and 22 homers, respectively. Reynolds is also leading the team with 85 RBIs and is batting .274. Cruz is batting .265 but has struggled of late, going 4/21 in his last seven games. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is also on a three-game hitting streak but is just 4/21 in his last seven games.
Brewers vs. Pirates Prediction: Brewers ML -121
There are a few ways you could play this Brewers and Pirates matchup, but we are going to stick with the money line and take the Brewers to win at -121. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers, and at -121, we like the value you are getting on the money line.
Looking at some potential player props, Mitch Keller has the highest strikeout projection among starters at six. As for the Brewers, you could look at Aaron Civale's strikeout total, where we have him finishing with five.
