From Truist Park in Atlanta, we have the Cardinals and Braves facing off in an NL matchup. First pitch is set for 1:35 PM ET, and the Braves are favored on the money line (-148). The Cardinals have a record of 51-47 and they are 2nd in the NL Central, while the Braves are 2nd in the NL East with an overall record of 54-43.
BSSE will be televising this matchup, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs. Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals, and he is facing off against Spencer Schwellenbach for the Braves.
St. Louis vs. Atlanta Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Cardinals at Braves
- Where: Truist Park Atlanta
- Date: Sunday, July 21st
- Betting Odds ATL -148 | STL +126 O/U 8.5
Cardinals vs Braves Last Game Recap
It was all St. Louis in the last game of this series, as the Cardinals took down the Braves by a score of 9-5. The Cardinals offense only had two more hits than the Braves and struck out 14 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -120 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Sonny Gray for the Cardinals and Bryce Elder for the Braves. Gray only went seven innings but gave up just five hits and two earned runs. On the other side, Elder was tagged for two homers and six runs in five innings of work.
St. Louis got to Elder early, scoring four runs in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. As for the Braves, they scored their first run in the 4th and added four more in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Cardinals had the better record at 57-43.
Cardinals Preview
St. Louis has a 51-47 overall record and is five games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. They are 15-14 against other NL Central teams this season. The Cardinals have won two straight series on the road and are looking to take the series lead vs. the Braves today.
The Cardinals are 30-17 ATS as underdogs this season and have a 24-26 ATS record on the road. Their average run differential is -0.4 runs per game, but they have covered by an average of 2.6 runs per game in their wins. The over/under record in games with an 8.5 run total is 22-12 for the Cardinals this season, and their overall O/U record is 47-48.
Right-hander Miles Mikolas is starting for the Cardinals today as he faces the Braves on the road. Mikolas has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 7-8 with an ERA of 5.13. Looking at his overall numbers, Mikolas has a WHIP of 1.22 and has issued just 1.44 walks per nine innings. This year, he has turned in 11 quality starts and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up six earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he hadn't allowed an earned run in two straight outings.
So far this season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is just 22nd in the league. They have been a bit better in terms of batting average, hitting .247 as a team, which is 8th in the MLB. One thing to keep in mind is that they have been near the top of the league in terms of home runs, but their team on-base percentage of .310 is just 13th in the league.
St. Louis has a few guys who have been swinging the bat well of late, with Alec Burleson batting .400 over his last 10 games, a stretch in which he has four home runs and 15 RBIs. Nolan Arenado, Iván Herrera, and Pedro Pagés are all on decent hitting streaks coming into the game.
Braves Preview
Atlanta has an overall series record of 18-11-3 this season, and their average run differential per game is +0.6. As the favorite, they have a 50-34 record, and their ATS record is 45-52. The Braves are 6-4 in their last 10 games and are 7.5 games behind the Phillies in the NL East.
When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the O/U record for Braves games is 9-17. This season, 36 of their games have had O/U lines of 8.5, which is 37.1% of their total games. Heading into today's game, the Braves are 30-18 at home and 21-27 ATS.
Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach gets the start for the Braves today as he faces off against the Cardinals. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with a 4.43 ERA. Schwellenbach's WHIP for the season is 1.16, and opponents are batting .241 off him this year. In his last outing, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had lost two straight starts. Schwellenbach has made four quality starts this year and is averaging 8.26 strikeouts per nine innings.
Marcell Ozuna has been on a tear of late for the Braves, going 14/36 with five homers in his last nine games. For the season, he is batting .305 and is 2nd in the league with 79 RBIs. Ozuna is also on an eight-game hitting streak. Austin Riley and Matt Olson are also in the top 15 in the league in homers, with 13 apiece.
Overall, the Braves are 17th in the league in scoring at 4.3 runs per game and have been a below-average team in terms of batting average and on-base percentage. As a team, they are 8th in slugging percentage and have the 9th most home runs in the league.
Cardinals vs. Braves Prediction: Braves ML -148
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Braves, and with them having an implied probability of 59.7% with a money line of -148, we see this as a good value pick.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Spencer Schwellenbach finishing with five strikeouts compared to Mikolas at four. Schwellenbach is also projected to finish with fewer hits and earned runs compared to Mikolas.
Offensively, the Cardinals are projected to finish with eight hits compared to the Braves at eight. However, the Cardinals are projected to finish with fewer home runs and more strikeouts.
If you're looking for a parlay, you could look to pair the Braves with the under, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and we have this one finishing with a combined nine runs.
