At 8:38 PM ET, the Braves and Padres face off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Padres are the slight money line favorite (-123). The money line odds for a Braves win are sitting at +104, and the over/under line is at 6.5 runs.
Max Fried is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Joe Musgrove for the Padres. Atlanta is 3rd in the NL East with a record of 89-73, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West at 93-69. ESPN2 is carrying this one on TV.
Atlanta vs. San Diego Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Braves at Padres
- Where: PETCO Park San Diego
- Date: Wednesday, October 2nd
- Betting Odds SD -123 | ATL +104 O/U 6.5
Braves vs Padres Last Game Recap
San Diego cruised to a 4-0 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a two-run 1st inning and added their final two runs in the 8th. As for the Braves, they had their best scoring chance in the 2nd when they loaded the bases with one out, but could only muster one run.
Michael King started for the Padres and picked up the win, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with 12 strikeouts but issued five walks. AJ Smith-Shawver only went 1 1/3 innings for the Braves, giving up three runs on four hits.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Kyle Higashioka each homered for the Padres. Tatis, Tatis, Jake Cronenworth, and Wil Myers each scored two runs for San Diego's offense.
Braves Preview
Facing a must-win game two against San Diego, Atlanta looks to even the series and avoid elimination. The Braves finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, going 46-35 at home and 43-38 on the road. As road underdogs, they went 11-15 this season.
Atlanta posted a 77-86 run line record this year, with a +1.1 run-scoring margin on the road. They’ve dropped three straight against the run line as favorites. The Braves’ over/under record is 59-98, and today’s 6.5-run line is their lowest of the season.
Max Fried is looking to build off his last outing, where he nearly threw a shutout. Against the Royals on September 27th, he went 8 2/3 innings, giving up no earned runs and picking up the win. Fried finished the game with nine strikeouts, three hits, and two walks. Looking back further, he has turned in a quality start in three of his last four outings. Fried's overall record is 11-10, and he has an ERA of 3.25. This year, opponents are batting .221 off the left-hander. For the season, Fried has two complete games and one shutout.
Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been the Braves' top power threats this season, with Ozuna leading the team with 39 homers and Olson not far behind at 29. Ozuna's 104 RBIs are also the best mark on the team, while Olson is 2nd with 98 RBIs. However, both players have struggled of late, with Ozuna batting just .120 and Olson at .208 over their last seven games.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game and are 4th in the league in home runs. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Atlanta comes into the game with three of their regulars on a solid hitting streak, with Olson at five games, Ozzie Albies at three, and Ronald Acuña Jr. at four.
Padres Preview
As the Padres prepare for game two against the Braves, they hold a 1-0 series lead and look to close out the series at home. San Diego finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, including a 45-36 mark at home and 48-33 on the road. As home favorites, they went 39-28 this season and have won five straight at home.
San Diego posted an 85-78 run line record this year, with a +0.6 average run margin per game. At home, their run line record is 34-48, while they went 51-30 on the road. The Padres’ over/under record is 82-77, and today’s 6.5-run line is their lowest of the season, compared to their average line of 8 runs.
Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today and will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Dodgers, he went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and one homer. Looking back over his last three outings, Musgrove has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made 19 starts this season, and his ERA is 3.88, along with a record of 6-5. Musgrove has turned in 10 quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 4.59 compared to 4.83 on the road.
San Diego comes into today's game with the league's top batting average at .263 and are also the top home run hitting team in the league. Overall, they are 8th in the league in runs scored (4.7) and have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Padres are also the league's top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.
Manny Machado has been the Padres' top power threat this season, as his 29 homers are 15th in the league and leads the team. He also has 105 RBIs, which is 7th best in the MLB. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the league in RBIs, as they have 85 and 90, respectively. Machado has gone deep three times over his last eight games, but is just 7/31 in that stretch. Kyle Higashioka, Luis Arraez, and Ha-Seong Kim are all on three-game hitting streaks.
Braves vs. Padres Prediction: Padres ML -123
Our prediction for this Braves vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -123. We have the Padres winning this one by a score of 4-3. Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Joe Musgrove finishing with more strikeouts than Max Fried, and we also have Musgrove finishing with fewer earned runs.
If you're looking for a parlay, you could also look to the over/under line, which is sitting at 6.5 runs. However, we see this one being a close game and would recommend sticking with the Padres on the money line.
