When it comes to the NBA Finals, everyone loves surprises. Sure, it’s easy to back the favorites like the Celtics or Nuggets, but there’s something thrilling (and potentially lucrative) about betting on the underdogs—the dark horses. These are the teams that aren’t leading conversations now but have the potential to disrupt the playoffs.
If you’re an NBA fan or a savvy sports bettor looking for value picks, it’s time to dig a little deeper. We’re breaking down the top dark horse contenders who could turn the postseason on its head.
What Makes a Dark Horse Worth Betting On?
Before jumping into the list, let’s set the stage. Why bet on a dark horse team? Simply put, the odds. Even betting small on a team with long odds can have a significant payoff if they pull off the unexpected. Beyond the numbers, dark horse candidates bring wild-card energy to the playoffs, often forcing favorites to rethink their game plan.
However, betting smart involves looking at more than just odds. Pay attention to roster depth, potential trade impacts, injury news, NBA betting predictions, and team chemistry heading into the home stretch. With those factors in mind, here are the squads worth your attention.
1. Memphis Grizzlies (+3300)
The Memphis Grizzlies have quietly earned their second-place spot in the Western Conference standings. Yet, they’re still overlooked in most Finals conversations. Why? Likely because they lack the playoff pedigree of other teams. But don’t count them out.
Why Memphis is a solid bet:
- Finally, a healthy roster! With Ja Morant leading the way and a deep supporting cast including Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis has all the tools to contend.
- Their defense is tenacious, finishing top-five in defensive efficiency, and they thrive in transition.
- At +3300, the Grizzlies offer great value for a team that seems to only get better as the season progresses.
If you’re looking for a bet with a strong upside, Memphis might just be your dark horse. The question is whether they can handle the pressure under postseason lights.
2. Milwaukee Bucks (+3300)
On paper, the Bucks have championship DNA—Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are superstars who can change any game. However, their inconsistency this season has raised eyebrows. Even with a blockbuster trade for Kyle Kuzma, the Bucks haven’t found their groove.
Why the Bucks can shock the league:
- Pairing Dame’s scoring prowess with Giannis’ all-encompassing dominance creates a unique one-two punch.
- If Milwaukee figures out their chemistry going into the playoffs, they’ll be incredibly dangerous in a seven-game series.
- At +3300, oddsmakers are sleeping on a team packed with star power.
Yes, there are question marks surrounding Milwaukee. But in sports (and betting), sometimes it’s all about hitting form at the right time.
3. Los Angeles Lakers (+1800)
Some big gambles pay off. Trading Anthony Davis landed the Lakers Luka Doncic—and if that doesn’t scream championship ambition, what does? While plenty doubted this blockbuster trade at first, the early returns are tantalizing. Luka and LeBron James together? Forget lights out; we’re talking theater-level drama and dominance.
Why the Lakers demand attention:
- Luka Doncic adds ball-handling creativity and crunch-time scoring to pair with LeBron’s leadership.
- Sure, the frontcourt lacks depth post-trade, but if any duo can overcome gaps in roster depth, it’s Luka and LeBron.
- At +1800 from FanDuel, it’s a spicier swing for bettors willing to believe greatness can rise despite flaws.
Yes, this is a big bet on star power, but hey, sometimes you just ride with the legends.
4. LA Clippers (+4400)
Despite being battered by injuries early in the season, the Clippers are quietly climbing the ranks now that Kawhi Leonard has returned. The midseason acquisitions of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Ben Simmons add intriguing dimensions to a team that could challenge anyone if healthy.
Why the Clippers could shock us:
- Kawhi Leonard in playoff mode is a different beast entirely.
- Ivica Zubac and Norman Powell have had excellent seasons, adding much-needed support on both ends of the floor.
- +4400 odds for a team coming together at the perfect time? That’s enticing.
The Clippers’ greatest enemy might be their patchy availability. If they’re healthy when it matters (and that’s a big “if”), they could make noise in the loaded Western Conference.
5. Dallas Mavericks (+8500)
Then, there’s Dallas. Trading for Anthony Davis was met with mixed reactions, but his strong debut flipped fans’ opinions, only for him to suffer an injury immediately after. With Davis sidelined and the Mavs teetering on playoff contention in the eighth seed, it’s easy to overlook Dallas.
Why bettors might take the risk:
- If Davis returns in time for the playoffs, his presence could massively boost the Mavs’ chances.
- They’ve now added Max Christie, a much-needed spark in their rotation.
- At staggering +8500 odds, the Mavs are the ultimate boom-or-bust option for high-stakes gamblers.
Want a lottery ticket with big pay potential? This might just be it. Risky, yes. But boring? Never.
Strategy Tips for Betting on Dark Horses
- Play the Long Game: Futures bets can take months to pay off, so only wager money you’re comfortable holding up.
- Monitor Injuries Closely: Injury news can significantly shift odds. Pay attention to reports on key players for your team.
- Hedge Your Bets: If your dark horse makes it deep into the playoffs, consider hedging to lock in some guaranteed winnings.
Why Underdogs Deserve a Second Look
Betting on dark horse teams isn’t just about chasing big payouts—it’s about recognizing potential where others don’t. While favorites may dominate headlines, the right underdog can shake up the playoffs and reward those willing to take the risk.
Whether you’re backing an overlooked contender or playing it safe with a hedge strategy, smart betting starts with staying informed. So, as the postseason approaches, keep your eyes on the sleepers—because in the NBA, surprises are always part of the game.
