Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Read our Dolphins vs Texans pick and preview for this NFL pre-season week 15 game in Houston. Check out who we like to win and cover the spread in this regular season NFL matchup.

The Texans are favored at -2.5 as they host the Dolphins at NRG Stadium in Houston on Sunday, December 15th at 1:00 ET. This week 15 AFC matchup is being televised on CBS. The Texans are favored on the money line at -153, while the Dolphins' money line odds are +130. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

Dolphins vs. Texans Matchup At A Glance

  • Sport: NFL
  • Teams: Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
  • Where: Houston at NRG Stadium
  • Date: Sunday, December 15th
  • Betting Odds HOU -2.5, MIA +130 | HOU -153 O/U 47

Dolphins Preview:

After losing to the Packers in week 13, the Dolphins bounced back with a 32-26 win over the Jets in week 14, bringing their record to 6-7. Miami was favored by 6.5 points but couldn’t cover the spread, and the 58 combined points went over the 45.5-point line. Despite the win, our power rankings have the Dolphins 16th, and they have a 14.7% chance of making the playoffs.

Miami is 5-8 against the spread, including two straight ATS losses. They are 3-5 as favorites and 2-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-7, with their games averaging 42.8 points compared to an average line of 45.

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

Miami’s offense is currently 17th in our power rankings, sitting 21st in the NFL with 20.3 points per game. They are 14th in passing yards per game (226.5) and 19th in total yards per game (331.8), while ranking 13th in 3rd-down conversion percentage. The Dolphins are 9th in passing attempts per game and 16th in rushing attempts, but they are 24th in rushing yards per game.

Tua Tagovailoa has been on fire, throwing for 331 yards (33/47) and 2 touchdowns in week 14, following a 365-yard game in week 13 and a 317-yard, 4-touchdown performance in week 12. Tyreek Hill had 10 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in week 14, while De'Von Achane rushed for 24 yards on 14 carries. Miami scored 11 points in the 4th quarter against the Jets before winning in overtime.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 32-26 overtime win over the Jets, the Dolphins' defense gave up 319 passing yards on 27 completions. Miami allowed 402 total yards, with 83 rushing yards on 21 attempts. The Dolphins' defense forced the Jets to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate and recorded three sacks in the game.

Miami's defense gave up 319 yards through the air and allowed the Jets to average 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Despite these numbers, the Dolphins still came out on top in their most recent game.

Texans Preview:

Heading into week 15, the Texans sit at 8-5, giving them a 95.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 94.1% chance of winning the AFC South. They rank 12th in our NFL power rankings. Houston bounced back from a week 12 loss to the Titans by beating the Jaguars 23-20 in week 13. The Texans were 3-point favorites in that game, so the win was a push against the spread.

Houston has a +1.5 scoring margin this season and is 5-7-1 against the spread. They are 3-6-1 as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-8-1, with their games averaging 45.8 points compared to an average line of 44.9.

Texans Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 15, the Texans rank 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 23.7 points per game, and 18th in total yards, with 335.2 per game. Houston ranks 17th in passing yards (221.2) and 16th in rushing yards (114.1) per game. They are 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 37.1% success rate, and 18th in red zone conversion percentage.

C.J. Stroud threw for 242 yards (22/34) and a touchdown in week 13, after a 247-yard, 2-touchdown game in week 12. Joe Mixon rushed for 101 yards on 20 carries in week 13, and Nico Collins had 8 catches for 119 yards. Houston scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter and 7 in the 4th against Jacksonville.

Texans Team Defense

The Texans' defense gave up 276 passing yards to the Jaguars in their most recent game, but they did come up with one interception. They allowed 24 completions and 2 passing touchdowns, and Jacksonville finished with a 57.1% completion percentage. Houston didn't manage any sacks in the game and struggled to generate pressure, as they lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -2.

On the ground, the Texans held the Jaguars to 97 yards rushing on 25 attempts. Overall, Houston's defense was able to limit Jacksonville to 20 points in their 23-20 win, and they held the Jaguars to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down.

Dolphins vs Texans Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

  • Across their last three road contests, Miami has a 2-1 record vs the spread. Their overall mark in these games was 1-2, while averaging 22 points per game.
  • Through their last ten home contests, the Texans offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 22. Houston posted an overall record of 6-4 while going 5-4-1 ATS.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 1-9 straight up.
  • Against the spread, the Texans have put together of 2-2-1 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 4-1 straight up.

Dolphins vs Texans Free Pick

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