In this Conference Championship NFL preview between Bills and Chiefs, see who like to win the game and cover the spread.
At 6:30 ET on Sunday, January 26th, the Chiefs will host the Bills in the AFC Championship. The game is being televised on CBS, and the Chiefs are favored at -2 on the point spread and -129 on the money line. The over/under line is sitting at 47.5 points, with the Bills at +109 on the money line.
Bills vs. Chiefs Matchup At A Glance
- Sport: NFL
- Teams: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
- Where: Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium
- Date: Sunday, January 26th
- Betting Odds KC -2, BUF +109 | KC -129 O/U 47.5

Bills Preview:
After a pair of losses in weeks 4 and 5, the Bills bounced back with three straight wins to close out the regular season, finishing 13-4 and securing the top spot in the AFC East. In week 3, they easily handled the Jaguars, winning 47-10 and covering the 4-point spread. They then beat the Dolphins 31-10 in week 2, winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs, before edging the Cardinals 34-28 in week 1. Buffalo was favored by 6.5 points in that game but couldn’t cover.
Heading into the conference championship, the Bills rank 3rd in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and are 12-7 against the spread this season. Their O/U record is also 12-7, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Bills Offense Breakdown
Our offensive power rankings have the Bills sitting 3rd in the NFL, and they are 2nd in the league in scoring, averaging 30.7 points per game. Buffalo has leaned on the run game, ranking 7th in rushing attempts and 9th in rushing yards, with James Cook rushing for 67 yards on 17 carries in the divisional round. They are 27th in passing attempts, with Josh Allen throwing for 127 yards on 16/22 passing against the Ravens after his 272-yard performance in the Wild Card round.
Buffalo ranks 7th in 3rd-down conversion rate (44.1%) and is 5th in red zone attempts, but they have struggled to convert, ranking 30th in the NFL. Khalil Shakir led the team with 67 receiving yards on 6 catches in the divisional round, while Curtis Samuel had 68 yards in the Wild Card round and 52 yards in Week 18.
Bills Team Defense
The Bills' defense gave up 176 rushing yards on 30 attempts in their 27-25 win over the Ravens, while also allowing 240 yards through the air. Baltimore had a few big plays, averaging 9.6 yards per attempt in the passing game, including two touchdowns. Buffalo's defense did force one interception and recorded two sacks.
Opponents also converted 70% of their third down attempts against Buffalo. Despite these struggles, the Bills managed to come out on top, even though the Ravens finished with 416 total yards in the game.
Chiefs Preview:
With a 15-2 record, the Chiefs finished the regular season atop the AFC and AFC West. They went 5-1 in division play and were a perfect 9-0 at home. Kansas City bounced back from a week 18 loss to the Broncos with a 23-14 win over the Texans in the divisional round, though they didn’t cover the 9.5-point spread. The O/U line for that game was 41.5, with the teams combining for 37 points.
Heading into week 3, the Chiefs ranked 6th in our power rankings. Their average scoring margin this season is +3.8, and they are 7-10-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 7-11, with the under hitting in their last two games.
Chiefs Offense Breakdown
Our offensive power rankings have the Chiefs sitting 8th in the NFL. They are 14th in points per game, averaging 22.7, and 19th in yards per game with 321.2. Kansas City ranks 16th in passing yards per game, with 219, on 34.7 attempts per game, which is 8th in the league. On the ground, they rank 24th in rushing yards per game, with 102.2, on 26.2 attempts per game. The Chiefs have been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the NFL, and they are 7th in red zone attempts, though they rank 23rd in red zone conversion percentage at 13.8%.
Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and a touchdown in the divisional round, going 16/25 without an interception. Travis Kelce had 7 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown, while Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing with 44 yards on 8 carries. Kansas City scored 10 points in the 4th quarter against Houston after being shut out in the 3rd quarter.
Chiefs Team Defense
Despite allowing 149 rushing yards on 29 attempts, the Chiefs' defense was tough to throw against in their 23-14 win over the Texans. Houston managed just 187 passing yards on 19 completions, with Kansas City's defense giving up only 6.7 yards per attempt. The Chiefs didn't allow a passing touchdown and pressured the quarterback consistently, recording eight sacks and hitting the quarterback more often than the Texans.
On third downs, the Texans converted just 41.2% of their chances. Even though the Chiefs gave up 336 total yards, their ability to get to the quarterback and disrupt the passing game was a key factor in their defensive performance.
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis
- Across their ten previous road games, Buffalo has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 27 points per game.
- Across the Chiefs last five home games, the team averaged 20 points per game while allowing 22. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 3-2 straight-up.
- In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Bills have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.
- The last ten games that Kansas City was favored, they have an ATS mark of 3-7 while going 10-0 straight up.
Bills vs Chiefs Free Pick
- KnupSports.com Free Betting Pick: Bills +2 Be sure to check out our other NFL Football betting previews for this week. KnupSports.com also updates their sports betting picks page daily with plays across all sports.