Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Matchup

Check out our free Broncos vs Bills pick and preview for this NFL Wild Card round game in Orchard Park. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this Wild Card round matchup.

The Broncos are +358 on the money line as they face the Bills in an AFC wild card round matchup. The game, set for 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th, will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY. The Bills are the heavy favorite at -468, with an 8.5-point spread in their favor. CBS is covering the game, and the over/under line is set at 47 points.

Broncos vs. Bills Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
Where: Orchard Park at Highmark Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 12th
Betting Odds BUF -8.5, DEN +358 | BUF -468 O/U 47

Broncos Preview:

Denver finished the regular season with a 10-7 record, placing them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. After starting the season ranked 17th in our power rankings, the Broncos were able to secure a playoff spot despite losing their last three games. This included a 38-27 home loss to the Chargers in week 16 and a 30-24 road loss to the Bengals in week 17. However, they bounced back with a 38-0 win over the Chiefs in week 18, covering the 11-point spread.

Heading into the playoffs, Denver has a +6.7 scoring margin and is 12-5 against the spread. They are 8-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 43.3 points compared to an average line of 41.3.

Broncos Offense Breakdown

Bo Nix bounced back from his 2-interception game in week 2, completing 25 of 36 passes for 216 yards in the Broncos' week 3 win over the Buccaneers. He posted a passer rating of 84 and avoided turnovers after struggling in week 1 (138 yards, 2 INTs) and week 2 (231 yards, 2 INTs). Courtland Sutton led the team with 7 catches for 68 yards, while Tyler Badie rushed for 70 yards on 9 carries.

Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in passing attempts per game but sits 20th in passing yards, averaging 212.4 per game. They are 16th in rushing, with 112.2 yards per game on 27.1 attempts. The Broncos are 13th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and 22nd in red zone efficiency, converting 16.1% of their opportunities.

Broncos Team Defense

In their 38-0 win over the Chiefs, the Broncos' defense was absolutely dominant. They allowed just 98 total yards and only 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts. The passing game for Kansas City managed only 71 yards and completed just 58.8% of their passes. The Broncos' defense also didn't allow a single third-down conversion, as the Chiefs went 0% on third down.

Denver's defense was all over the Chiefs' quarterbacks, recording five sacks and winning the quarterback hit differential by +9. Their secondary was also strong, not allowing any big plays down the field.

Bills Preview:

The Bills finished the regular season 13-4, securing the top spot in the AFC East and the #2 seed in the conference. After two straight losses, Buffalo bounced back with three consecutive wins, including a 47-10 victory over the Jaguars in week 3 and a 31-10 win over the Dolphins in week 2. In week 1, they held off the Cardinals for a 34-28 win, though they couldn’t cover the 6.5-point spread. The 62 combined points went over the 45.5-point line, marking the second straight over in Buffalo’s games.

Heading into the playoffs, the Bills have an average scoring margin of +9.2 and are 10-7 against the spread. They rank 4th in our power rankings and have an 8-0 record at home this season. Buffalo is 11-6 O/U, with their games averaging 52.5 points compared to a 46.3-point line.

Bills Offense Breakdown

Josh Allen has been on fire to start the season, posting a passer rating of 142 in week 3 against the Jaguars, with 263 yards and 4 touchdowns on 23/30 passing. He also avoided turnovers and sacks in weeks 2 and 3. Khalil Shakir led the team in receiving in week 3, with 6 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. James Cook had 78 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in week 2, following his 71-yard performance in week 1.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in our offensive power rankings and is 2nd in the NFL with 30.9 points per game. They are 10th in total yards per game (359.1) and 9th in passing yards (227.9) and rushing yards (131.2) per game. Despite ranking 5th in red zone attempts, they are 30th in conversion percentage, with a 44.1% success rate on 3rd downs.

Bills Team Defense

In their 23-16 loss to the Patriots, the Bills' defense allowed 232 passing yards on 22 completions. New England finished with 309 total yards, with Buffalo limiting them to just 77 yards on 30 rushing attempts. The Bills' defense also forced the Patriots to a 33.3% third-down conversion rate.

Buffalo's defense allowed one passing touchdown and recorded one sack. Despite the loss, they did win the quarterback hit differential, finishing with two more hits on the quarterback than the Patriots, and they also had three more tackles for loss.

Broncos vs Bills Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last five road games, Denver has an ATS record of just 2-3. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 20 points per game.
In their last three games at home, the Bills have a straight up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 35 points per game in these contests.
Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Broncos have a straight up record of 0-5. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-4.
In their last three contests as the favorite, Buffalo has a poor record vs the spread going 1-2. But, they still put together a straight up mark of 2-1.